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Kolya Abramsky, "Long-Term Strategizing: Anticipating Uncertain Futures"kolya writes: "Long-Term Strategizing: Anticipating Uncertain Futures" — To propose that the topics in this text form the basis of a collectively produced bilingual publication (perhaps in the name of PGA?) in time for the next global conference as an analytical tool. This depends on levels of interest.An important task for global networks is to be able to anticipate, prepare and strategize for future scenarios in order to have the most influence possible in actually shaping these future scenarios. This implies not just short term awareness, but also medium and long term awareness. Every time capital and state power seek to impose a free-trade regime, or an illegal invasion of a country, they are using force to physically rearrange the world to serve their long term needs and strategies. Capitalist planners are not thinking just 1 year ahead, nor even 5 but more likely 20, 30 or even 50 years. If we are to take our own goals of long term revolutionary change seriously, this presents an important and difficult challenge to global networks to fight on the same terrain – our networks need to (collectively) develop the ability to also think in such a time frame, and have such long term perspectives shape actions in the short term.
It is often taken for granted that the age of wars between major powers (such as the two World Wars) is a thing of the past. Given that nuclear weapons could mean the destruction of human and other life on the planet, this is a reassuring thought, but how safe is this assumption? It is worth bearing in mind that the First World-War was predicted over 20 years in advance by revolutionary movements and thinkers. Yet, despite years of anticipation and preparation, they were nonetheless unable to prevent the war. Is there a danger that the War on Terror is the opening shots of a far greater global conflict? Europe’s rupture with the USA over the war on Iraq gave visibility to inter-state tensions which had been brewing for a long time. Trade wars are rife, especially between the EU and USA, China and USA, and EU and China. The USA and EU, and to a lesser extent China, are all involved in fierce currency battles. All three regions, as well as Russia, India and Japan, are in the midst of significant remilitarization processes, and are in the process of realigning with other major states. Today, as the world-wide division of labor undergoes a massive reorganization, and rivalry between major state powers once again intensifies, is there the danger that this could break out into global war as such rivalry has in the past? Or, has the world-economy undergone transformations which make such a repetition impossible? This is a question that is not being widely addressed by activists, but has had some level of discussion amongst social scientists, especially those investigating long term social change at the global level. There is very little consensus as to the conclusions, but, it is perhaps an interesting irony that in February 2005, a NATO conference took place in which one such social scientist who has made important contributions to the debate gave a keynote speech on the theme. An important question is how do struggles for social protection which are based on national protection help contribute to processes of inter-state tension? A relevant current example of this is what will be the effects if across the world movements demand that “their” governments pull “their” country out of the WTO, rather than collectively abolishing the WTO together with people throughout the world? Or, the popularity of Bush’s protectionist agenda in the USA. Another important factor is likely to be the degree to which social struggles in China are able to access global networks of struggle and vice versa, and how relevant these networks are seen as being by struggles there. However, until the WTO protests in Hong Kong, no Chinese organization has been on the PGA Convenor’s Committee, nor the WSF International Secretariat/Council. Neither has there been a Chinese Indymedia or a Chinese member organization of Via Campesina. This is despite the fact that there has been a large increase in both rural and industrial social protest in recent years, a process likely to intensify as China’s membership of the WTO implies a massive assault on its enormous peasant population. Including social struggle in China into our global networks presents a very big challenge, certainly not made any easier by the fact that China is the largest one party state in the world. Peak oil is being discussed by many people, with a wide variety of perspectives. Importantly, even major investment bankers in the petroleum sector, and US security officials are saying that it is a real threat. Because energy is something so basic to social needs, it is an issue that touches on many other areas. As such, the issue is not just relevant to people who are working directly on energy-related issues. The fact that oil production is peaking does not mean that oil will run out immediately. There are still many years of oil left in the ground. What it does mean is that oil prices are likely to rise enormously, and competition for it will increase. Then the question becomes “who will pay the costs”? Because oil is a commodity basic to the capitalist economy, rising oil prices also mean rising prices for other goods. Especially important here is that it is likely to massively push up the costs of attaining life’s basic needs such as food and shelter. And, rather than peak oil signifying the end of capitalism as some have prophesied, it is more likely that capital will try to push these extra costs onto people throughout the world, both in oil producing and oil consuming countries alike. We are very likely to see a combination of harsh austerity programs and rising living costs in oil consuming countries (mainly in the north) and tougher working and extraction conditions in oil producing countries (mainly in the South and former Soviet Union). Furthermore, at some point it is likely that there will be a transition away from oil towards other sources of energy, and again the question is “whose terms will it be on?” and “how long will it take”? Will it be capital intensive, risk intensive technologies such as nuclear as the current political establishment seems to favor, or will it be renewable energies. Will it be a long drawn out process that tries to maximize the profits of the oil corporations who will milk the last oil reserves till their last drop, or will it be an accelerated process driven by the urgency of climate change? It is not just a question of technology, but more importantly a question of ownership, rents, and prices. The transition can not be left to the market. The struggle for decommodification of energy to ensure that energy is accessible to people, together with the struggle for energy producers to get higher prices on world markets cannot be separated from the struggle for a transition away from fossil fuels and nuclear energy. Perhaps crucial here will be the issue of ownership of the world’s remaining oil and gas reserves in the next years. It is important that global networks are seen as relevant, helpful and inclusive by communities effected by oil extraction, and also oil and gas workers (especially in the Middle East), and equally important will be the efforts that global networks make in this direction to include these struggles. Until now, several indigenous peoples’ struggles against oil have been involved in PGA, but there has been very little inclusion of oil workers except some excellent international networking with Iraqi oil workers in relation to the war. Many scientists, including health experts at the World Health Organization and health officials around the world, as well as in pharmaceuticals companies, fear that Avian Flu might soon mutate into a form that could cause a global pandemic killing many millions of people worldwide. Many peasant communities in Asia have already directly experienced the effects at the human level and also witnessed the slaughter of their livestock and destruction of their livelihoods. Should a global pandemic of Avian Flu actually occur, its effects would be likely to be felt especially in rural and poor communities, and those already weakened by respiratory infections or weakened immune systems such as those with AIDS/HIV. Responses to the threat are likely to include the killing of livestock on a massive scale, especially chickens and other poultry. This has already occurred in several countries, including China, Thailand and Vietnam. This forced destruction of animals may result in a rapid restructuring or agriculture, with little compensation to the people whose livelihoods are directly affected. There is the danger that it could result in a very rapid, coordinated destruction of peasant agriculture, and an extreme concentration of the sector in the hands of agribusiness companies. With the majority of the world’s population lacking accessible public health services, basic food security and other forms of social security, it is hard to take seriously the official governmental and intergovernmental preparatory measures. The devastation caused by AIDS/HIV serves as a warning as to how patterns of global inequality shape the deadly effects of a pandemic, and the dangers of leaving prevention and treatment in the hands of the market at the mercy of pharmaceuticals companies backed up by global trade regimes. Arrighi, Giovanni: 2005: "Hegemony Unraveling," Parts 1 and 2, New Left Review 32, March–April 2005. Bell, Peter and Cleaver, Harry 2002: "Marx’s Theory of Crisis as a Theory of Class Struggle" in The Commoner, Autumn 2002, here (originally published in Research in Political Economy, Vol. 5 1982). Bunker, Stephen and Ciccantell, Paul 2005: Globalization and the Race For Resources, The Johns Hopkins University Press. Cleaver, Harry 1979: Reading Capital Politically, The Harvester Press, Brighton. Complete document available as pdf file here . National Intelligence Council 2005: Mapping the Global Future: Report of the National Intelligence Council's 2020 Project. Complete document available here. Wallerstein, Immanuel 1995: After Liberalism, The New Press, New York. Wallerstein, Immanuel 1998: Utopistics – Or, Historical Choices of the Twenty-first Century, The New Press, New York. Arrighi, Giovanni 1994: The Long Twentieth Century: Money and Power and the Origins of Our Times, Verso UK/USA. Duncan, Richard 2005: The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures, John Wiley and Sons, Singapore. Durán, Ramon Fernández (English version forthcoming, Spanish version Virus 2005), Global Finance Capitalism and Permanent War: The Dollar, Wall Street, and the War Against Iraq. Gowan, Peter 1999: The Global Gamble: Washington’s Faustian Bid for World Dominance, Verso London/New York. Harvey, David 2003: The New Imperialism, Oxford University Press, Oxford. Marazzi, Christian 1977: "Money in the World Crisis: The New Basis of Capitalist Power," Zerowork 2, available here. Rivalry, Protectionism and World War Arrighi, Giovanni and Silver, Beverly (Eds.) 1999: Chaos and Governance in the Modern World System, University of Minnesota Press, Minneapolis, USA. Caffentzis, George 2005: "The War on Terrorism and the US Working Class," and "Is Truth Enough?" in No Blood for Oil! – Energy, Class Struggle, and War, 1998–2004, published as an ebook by radicalpolYtics.org. Complete document available as pdf file here. Goldstein, Joshua 1988: Long Cycles: Prosperity and War in the Modern Age, Yale University Press, New Haven/London. Complete document available as pdf file here. Goldstein, Joshua 2005: "The Predictive Power of Long Wave Theory, 1989–2004," speech prepared for NATO Conference on Kondratieff Waves and Warfare, Covilha, Portugal, Feb 2005. Available as pdf file here. Polanyi, Karl 1944/57: The Great Transformation: The Political and Economic Origins of our Time Beacon Press, Boston. Silver, Beverly 2003: Forces of Labor: Workers’ Movements and Globalization Since 1870, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. Silver, Beverly 2004: "Labor, War and Politics: Contemporary Dynamics in World Historical Perspective," in Unfried, van der Linden and Schindler (Eds.) Labor and New Social Movements in a Globalising World System, 2004. Available as pdf file here. Caffentzis, George 2005: "No Blood for Oil!: Energy, Class Struggle, and War, 1998–2004" published as an ebook by radicalpolYtics.org. Complete document available as pdf file here. Keefer, Thomas 2005: "Of Hand Mills and Heat Engines: Peak Oil, Class Struggle, and the Thermodynamics of Production," MA Thesis, York University, Toronto. Podobnik, Bruce 2005: Global Energy Shifts: Fostering Sustainability in a Turbulent Age, Temple University Press. Davis, Mike 2005: The Monster at Our Door: The Global Threat of Avian Flu, The New Press, New York. |
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